Recruitment Focus: Finding Manchester United’s Next Striker

Manchester United appear to be in the market for a new striker this summer, and it’s no surprise considering the lack of impact we’ve seen from Rasmus Hojlund and Joshua Zirkzee since their arrivals. The young duo aren’t solely to blame for their lack of production, with Ruben Amorim’s side struggling to create chances, but as a result, they may need to find a striker capable of creating something out of nothing.

Working with The Win Factory, I’ve used their machine learning algorithm to find a player who could suit exactly what United need. 

Now, the tool from The Win Factory allows me to compare particular players with others from around the world. As it stands, it’s difficult to argue that Hojlund and Zirkzee are the correct profiles United need, so we may have to be a little clever with our search parameters. Ignoring the algorithm system for a second, there’s one player I think any club in the world would love to have – Alexander Isak.

Can United attract a player of Isak’s calibre at the moment? Probably not. Could they afford to pay what Newcastle will demand? Absolutely not. Will we be seeing Isak at Old Trafford in a Red Devils shirt next season? Categorically not (feel free to bookmark this). So, what I’ve done is used The Win Factory to find some players who are similar to Isak in terms of the data, and hopefully, more achievable and affordable. 

Firstly, I’ve set the parameters to only find players playing in a similar strength of league to Isak. I’m also searching only in Europe, for now, while I’m predominantly targeting players under the age of 27. The deal has to make sense financially for United, and bringing in another ageing player on big wages could be detrimental.

Hugo Ekitike

One player who has shown up in the results is Hugo Ekitike. The Eintracht Frankfurt forward scores a percentage of 71.36 in terms of similarity to Isak. At the age of 23, Ekitike is a player who is yet to reach his full potential, but is still performing at a strong level in a competitive league.

Three obvious bits of data stand out to me, and they should to you too when looking at the graph. Non-penalty xG, xG per shot, and touches inside the box. These are three metrics a top-level striker should be scoring high in, first and foremost. What it means is that Ekitike is getting in the right positions to take high-quality shots, he’s getting plenty of touches inside the box to try and finish opportunities, and he’s there to do the main job of a striker – trying to put the ball in the back of the net.

He also scores highly on progressive runs and percentage of new successful dribbles. In terms of suitability to United, this is perfect. There’s going to be times where Ekitike isn’t getting the service inside the box for him to finish opportunities, but he’s clearly a player that also looks to create chances for himself. Comfortable with the ball at his feet, Ekitike enjoys taking players on and making something happen. At the right price, he could be ideal for United.

Comparing to Victor Osimhen

Victor Osimhen is another player being heavily linked with signing for United, and it’s easy to see why. The Nigerian striker scores a 90.8% similarity rating on The Win Factory to Manchester City’s Erling Haaland, and there won’t be many supporters turning their nose up at a player of the Norwegian’s calibre.

Osimhen’s wage demands are reportedly incredibly high, and as a result, United might have to turn in another direction. So we’ve taken a look at other players who could be similar to the Galatasaray striker.

One player with a similarity rating of 69.23% is Fiorentina’s Moise Kean. The Italian forward has enjoyed an incredible season with the Serie A club, and could be a smart addition for United. Although not scoring as highly as Ekitike, Kean has high non-penalty xG and xG per shot, but where he does rank higher is his link-up play.

This is something Joshua Zirkzee offers, but he doesn’t have the instinctiveness and movement of Kean inside the penalty box. Having a player capable of linking midfield to attack as well as getting into the box to convert chances could be ideal, and Kean has shown that in abundance this season. 

The former Everton striker also has the pace to chase balls in behind, whereas a player like Zirkzee is more likely to drop deeper to try and receive the ball to feet.

As you’ll see from The Win Factory’s data on the youngster, he’s a player who produces low-quality shots, but that is perhaps due to the side and system he’s playing in. What he does do well is run with the ball and get onto loose passes in behind the defence. With Ipswich, he’s often forced to chase lost causes rather than sit in the box and be a target man. 

Based on the data, it’s difficult to see if he could translate his performances to United. It would likely be another high-risk signing, similar to Zirkzee and Hojlund, but it will be interesting to see how he would fare in a better side.

As you can see from the graph, Delap barely has the opportunity to touch the ball inside the box, but he’s somehow managed to score 12 Premier League goals this season. Being able to produce goals out of nothing based off minimal chances created is certainly a positive sign, and perhaps a reason why United are looking to secure his signature.

Tactically Matt’s suggestion

Looking closer to a similar profile to Isak, I’ve tried to go a little more outside of the box. Lowering the team and league strength similarity metric to try and find a more similar profile, one player I’ve selected is Arnaud Kalimuendo. The Rennes forward scores a 84.74% similarity to Isak, and he’s started to flourish in Ligue 1 after leaving Paris Saint-Germain. The 23-year-old has been scoring fairly consistently since joining Rennes, but he’s a player that rarely gets mentioned when it comes to bigger clubs.

After seeing Kalimuendo’s name pop up, I decided to dig a little deeper into the young forward, with the data showing to me that we should be looking at a player similar to Isak, but maybe on a lesser level. Watching Kalimuendo, he’s a high-pressing forward who regularly gets into strong goalscoring positions, linking play between the midfield and attack superbly.

The data certainly matches up with the footage I’ve watched, and this is a young player who knows where the net is, but is still yet to reach his full potential. Kalimuendo might not be spoken about regularly in the media when it comes to transfers, but this means United could swoop in and take a chance on him.

Written by APFA Member, Tactically Matt